Reviewing the Year 2021.

 


NEERAJ MAHAJAN




2021 was clearly the most defining year of this century. And why so? Because, we are  lucky survivors who beat corona virus ( Physically , emotionally and financially). And that's no mean achievement. I don't take credit for it, neither should you as our survival could be sheer random ! Putting the year in perspective and with the clear cut benefit of hindsight , I share my expose of the year went by viz:


The Serendipity of Non Linearity 

We have all heard of the platitude, " The last straw breaks the Camels Back " or " a single drop can spill the waters ". Seems so cliché but this is  non linearity in plain simple terms ; a highly underrated concept I had read in books but understood only during lock downs. To simplify it further, if you aspire for something and are diligent in your approach towards it , the dream might continue to elude you . You will hear a lot of confusing noise but the dream shall  reveal itself in due course of time ; Suddenly. Due to randomness and our biological, emotional set up , we cant comprehend things ( though most of us think we do ) and give up precisely at the threshold of success. But, the tenacious souls who go the extra mile, savor the delight of that rare event that they have always dreamt of. They are rewarded greatly and so did yours humbly ; in relationships, finances , health. Non linearity of things was the discovery in 2021 so far as I was concerned.


The Farming Vertical

I have always cherished farming. It is amongst the oldest human enterprise and very inspiring to me. We have all heard " Eat your own cooking" and only thing that can better it is " Grow your own cooking ".

I set off to a start by creating a kitchen garden and planting the seasonal veggies. This was preceded by soil testing reports, a course in organic farming by Sh. Kiran Bhaskaran ( always willing to help). This is trial and error to me and I expect to be in this mode for at least a year. Given my little farming background, I expect my learning curve to be very steep. Once there, it will be time to decide whether and where to commit resources in land and labor. This is to me natures Trial and Error; an almost free option with an asymmetric payoff that can be exercised at will. There is very little to lose but the upside is unlimited.


Implementing the Learnings of 2020

I read voraciously in 2020 as lockdowns afforded it and exposed myself to new ideas. Most of my learning came from Incerto Antifragility, Randomness, thinking in Second order effects ( shall explain later ), Stoicism, Optionality, Black Swan risks, Time aggregation, Bricolage, Intervention, Falsification, Induction , Planning fallacy, Teleological Fallacy, role of luck & chance in life Taleb taught me. I am trying to make and assimilate all these ideas in to my second nature and have been only moderately successful up until now. 


Thinking in Terms of Second Order Effects

Most of our thinking is reactive, shallow and bereft of its long term consequences. It never ceases to amaze me when I look back on my decisions 25 years ago and there impact on my daily life. Bad decisions torment me regularly and good ones bring joy . Notwithstanding the huge impact of luck, in critical decision making which doesn't concern life and death, you must think through and bide your time. And that is only possible by playing the waiting game. Over time, most noise shall be eliminated and you will discern the information. That is what you need in an increasingly random world to manage your risks. 


The scaling property of randomness is misunderstood in most domains. We must observe things on a long term scale where ever possible, say 1 year or 6 months in Investments or 1 month in Trading".   (Taleb).


Stoicism

The wealthy Roman senior  Seneca is the original stoic. His style is so inspiring and practical . Seneca ditched the bad and kept the good. Whenever he gave away anything, he recorded it as bad . If it came back, it was recorded good. This way he only kept upside. Nothing to lose and everything to gain. He did take decisions and kept his wealth. This strategy is hugely convex to our biological and emotional apparatus. It is tough to practice and I aspire to it with diligence.


Positive Black Swan

Anything cherished rare with an exponential impact that comes your way is an example of Positive Black Swan. It could be finding a good life partner, successful start up,  getting rid of a life threatening disease or anything . One has to understand and appreciate uncertainty and keep going. As black swans are rare events they rarely come your way but they do for sure. You wont know when due to complex non linearities and randomness of our world. I collected a few Black Swans in personal as well as professional front in 2021. It is a great learning and a habit to acquire over time . 


Many thanks for reading me


WANABI STOIC



















 
























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