Why most Intervention is harmful ?

 

NEERAJ MAHAJAN

What is intervention ? Interference in any system we either don't fully understand or do or suffer from illusion of understanding. As the complexity in modern societies has increased exponentially, we don't understand most things , yet we intervene?. Why? There is an element of deceit associated with interventionism in modern society. And it is very easy to sell "Look what I did for you " than "look what I avoided for you".( Taleb in Antifragile).

Be it in relationships ( in Giving biased advices), our bodies ( by popping up pills or surgery on doctors advice or self medication at the drop of a hat), our investment portfolios ( in quick churning),our society ( by infighting or non cooperating), our environment ( by littering, emitting CO2), politics in socioeconomic matters ( like exploiting religion for gains or destroying things that are LINDY) or US attacking small nations  ( oil political economy) and so many, inter alia.

The damage that is done, in most cases, is appalling. And worst, do we realize that doing no harm is the real good ? My guess is a big NO. And this piece is inspired by my motto, " do no harm" . Here's why :

EXPERT INTERVENTION

This is the biggest culprit. As per NN Taleb, "Positive advice is usually the province of Charlatan". And the world abounds in charlatans . Their peculiarity ? Giving unsolicited advices which is mostly , I repeat mostly, wrong. 

In a complex system say human bodies, we  depend upon doctors. And doctors how so ever great humans they may be, love to intervene when  asked for advice. After all, it is their profession. They will prescribe pills, exercises, surgeries as cure. And abide by it you will religiously .

Casanovas as we homo sapiens are, will in due course of time either dump both ( pills and exercises) or at best persist with popping up pills. (Only an outlier will choose latter). Result ? Longer living humans but sicker, much sicker beings. Zombyish! This is the result of Iatrogenics, the worst form of intervention that kills the bodies power to heal itself .

NAIVE INTERVENTION

Naivety is lack of wisdom or experience and this is another hideous thing arising out of it. Most people have domain dependent mindset. If a legal case is to be filed, one needs a lawyer, if its about exercising, we yearn for a trainer, if its cooking then a chef is needed, if teaching look for a tutor and so on. What is the problem with this ?

Nothing much except the fact that most advice you get by paid professionals is motivated. Just as in medicines, if you approach a lawyer for help, rarely will you get the advice to try to resolve your dispute through negotiation . (Unless , of course, lawyer is a friend!) A trainer will prescribe supplements to exploit your impatience to become a Thor !

Ditto for teachers, schools selling their courses when they don't understand what your need is ? They only end up sucking your energy. Journalists bull shit in the media speculating on things they have no bloody idea about. They end up spreading negativity and adding to the confusion. Most intervention, I repeat, is negative. 

So does that mean there is no intervention that is positive ? No. There are good examples to negate it. But before that , one must understand the upside, downside asymmetry involved. Take this to know when intervention is needed .

BRICOLAGE

It is a French word meaning construction of an idea/things through available resources. It is a form of trial and error. Mother nature creates a fetus in a mothers womb. If its weak, it is aborted.  By abortion, nature maintains the strength of the genetic pool. If the weak fetus is allowed to take birth, child can be perennially sick and so its progeny.

 It is a positive intervention as nature understands the asymmetry of aborting a weak fetus. It is an option available to her. All that is needed is rationality to exploit it and mother nature does it ruthlessly. We humans, however, grieve on the losses. ( ethics is non contextual here.) We are emotional beings who don't understand the power of optionality but nature does.

Such options abound all around us where we intervene unconsciously. Like in repainting our homes, rusted parts of our bikes, car, taking care of our weak, infirm mostly the elderly(here we differ from nature as she is ruthless), regulating London city traffic in peak hours, speed on highways or a gardener pruning plants in a lawn inter alia. They are a favorable asymmetry as the downsides are huge .Through intervention a lot of damage can be prevented to ecology and status quo can be maintained. 

Take the case of Silicon Valley in CL . Their fail fast model is antifragile. It has known limited downside but unlimited upside. Investors/ entrepreneurs understand this and pull the plug on the start up if it doesn't get traction. No supplements provided. They understand the asymmetry well enough to intervene when needed. This preempts a lot of resource wastage. 

SUBTRACTIVE ADDITION OR VIA NEGATIVA

Most knowledge is subtractive. Just as good lies in the elimination of bad, most knowledge is subtractive. As most of what we know is deluded, knowledge can be added by removing what is wrong. And says Daniel Kahneman, "disconfirmation is much more rigorous than confirmation as our lazy system 2 tires very easily ". Steve jobs by his own admission could create the iconic Apple because he said NO to thousand other things.  Reads easy but is very very tough to replicate in the real world. 

To me the solution lies in being a Sceptic empiricist. In being someone who takes small bets, puts skin in the game and tries and err . Learns from it and then takes the next step. These are nothing but anti fragile bets where you lose small but win big. You intervene big time only if your risk management systems allow you to go ahead in aggregation of time. Avoid stepping on the thin line that separates a sceptic from a cynic though.

As always, many thnx for reading me. For any suggestions mail me @neerajmahajan0770@gmail.com and I shall revert to you asap.

best  

WANABI STOIC